What a difference a week makes in college football, especially one marked by statement wins by and against new rivals created by conference realignment, and as expected, there was some movement in ESPN’s top 25 rankings heading into Week 5.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
Here is where things stand in ESPN’s new top 25 college football rankings looking ahead to the Week 5 games.
25. Iowa State
Rankings change: Up 19
Win projection: 8.4 games
A big jump for the Cyclones after they pounded Arkansas State by a 52 to 7 count as Rocco Becht threw 2 touchdown passes and ran for a third score.
Rankings change: Up 8
Win projection: 7.9 games
Kalen Johnson ran for over 200 yards and scored 3 touchdowns as the Hawkeyes took down Minnesota in the Big Ten opener.
23. Arkansas
Rankings change: Up 6
Win projection: 6.5 games
Ja'Quinden Jackson ran for 2 touchdowns and the Razorbacks took advantage of 5 Auburn turnovers to pull out the win in the road in the SEC opener.
Rankings change: Up 2
Win projection: 9.3 games
Utah made an important statement in its Big 12 debut, playing strong defense and just enough offense without Cam Rising to take down a ranked Oklahoma State on the road.
21. Oklahoma State
Rankings change: Down 1
Win projection: 8.3 games
The Cowboys ranked ahead of the Utah team they lost to? FPI keeps the Pokes in the top 25 owing to its marginally-better projected point margin, but their playoff hopes dwindled after this week.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win projection: 7.5 games
Modest movement for the Wolverines after Kalel Mullings helped dominate USC on the ground and score the game-winner with 37 seconds left to ruin the Trojans' debut in the Big Ten. Michigan can't throw the ball, but it can dominate you on the line.
19. LSU
Rankings change: Up 3
Win projection: 7 games
LSU played it close against UCLA in the early going, but used a 96-yard touchdown drive to turn the game in its favor and outscored the Bruins 17-0 in the second half to pull away.
Rankings change: Down 3
Win projection: 7.6 games
Marcel Reed has to improve his accuracy and the Aggies' defense will have to limit big plays going forward after pulling out a close win over Bowling Green, with the SEC schedule coming up.
17. Oklahoma
Rankings change: Down 3
Win projection: 6.5 games
The early returns suggest this offense will have a hard time in the SEC after getting smothered by Tennessee and only eclipsing 100 yards late in the game, and now there's something of a QB controversy after the Sooners made a swap mid-game in a losing cause against the Vols.
Rankings change: Up 2
Win projection: 9.5 games
The index is still high on the Knights, who were idle this past weekend, but still command college football's best rushing output at 376 yards per game, and are 16th in scoring offense so far.
15. Indiana
Rankings change: Up 4
Win projection: 9.4 games
Curt Cignetti has helped revive this offense with Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, ranking top 25 in passing and rushing output, and 7th nationally in scoring offense.
Rankings change: Up 2
Win projection: 9.1 games
Cade Klubnik has led an offensive renaissance since the Georgia loss, scoring 125 points in routs against App State and now NC State and with a very winnable schedule going forward.
13. Missouri
Rankings change: Down 3
Win projection: 9.3 games
A close call at home against Vanderbilt, as Mizzou needed overtime and the Dores missing a game-tying field goal to come out with the win, a week after playing BC close, but still undefeated.
Rankings change: None
Win projection: 8.2 games
USC's defense is certainly better than it used to be, but a loss at Michigan in the school's Big Ten debut proves there's still room for improvement as the unit was bossed around early on, and especially late in regulation when it couldn't hold a fragile 3-point lead.
11. Louisville
Rankings change: Up 2
Win projection: 8.8 games
The Cards made an important statement at home against Georgia Tech, scoring touchdowns in all phases of the game to take full possession of the No. 1 spot in the ACC, with a trip to Notre Dame up next.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win projection: 9.9 games
Idle this past weekend, the Ducks routed Oregon State the week before and go to UCLA in the Big Ten opener with an expected three opponents coming up on the schedule.
9. Notre Dame
Rankings change: Down 2
Win projection: 9.7 games
There were some boo birds in the house that Rockne built after Miami of Ohio took an early 3-0 lead, but the Irish recovered by scoring 28 unanswered points and Riley Leonard had 3 touchdowns.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win projection: 10.2 games
Coming out of its idle week, the Nittany Lions responded by putting up over 700 total yards, a school record, in a rout of Kent State as Drew Allar threw 3 touchdowns passes and ran for another score.
7. Miami
Rankings change: Up 1
Win projection: 11.2 games
Cam Ward became the 1st Miami player with at least 300 yards passing in each of his first four games in the last quarter-century as the Canes rallied to pound USF on the road, and this offense has scored 209 points, the most ever through 4 games.
Rankings change: None
Win projection: 10.7 games
The Rebels have looked the part against overmatched competition behind a transfer-rich roster that was expected to dominate, out-scoring teams, 240 to 22, in the non-conference schedule.
5. Tennessee
Rankings change: Down 1
Win projection: 10.5 games
Big Orange passed a huge road test by dominating the Sooners and spoiling their SEC debut game, finding its chances offensively and playing strong defense to prove this is a complete team with legitimate aspirations in the SEC, and beyond.
Rankings change: Up 1
Win projection: 9.3 games
Idle this past weekend, the Bulldogs need answers after a sluggish win at Kentucky and heading into the first of three huge road tests in the SEC, at Alabama this coming Saturday.
3. Ohio State
Rankings change: None
Win projection: 11.1 games
The Buckeyes scored 4 touchdowns of 40 or more yards, including TreVeyon Henderson's 2 rushing scores and long plays from Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka to pound Marshall at home, but the defensive front had some early struggles in this game.
Rankings change: None
Win projection: 10.6 games
Idle this past Saturday, the Crimson Tide are coming off a big win at Wisconsin with plenty of rest heading into the first big test for Kalen DeBoer, at home against Georgia in the SEC opener.
1. Texas
Rankings change: None
Win projection: 11.5 games
Arch Manning gave himself a C-plus in his first start after throwing an interception on his first drive, and going 15 of 29 passing, but he had some big plays, too, including a 56-yarder to Isaiah Bond and a 46-yard connection with Matthew Golden in a 51-3 win over UL Monroe.
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